{"id":162792,"date":"2025-11-24T11:46:48","date_gmt":"2025-11-24T11:46:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pv-tech.org\/?p=162792"},"modified":"2025-11-24T12:12:16","modified_gmt":"2025-11-24T12:12:16","slug":"adapting-solar-project-economics-in-a-low-energy-price-environment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pv-tech.org\/adapting-solar-project-economics-in-a-low-energy-price-environment\/","title":{"rendered":"Adapting solar project economics in a low energy price environment"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"
The commercial landscape for standalone PV projects in some European markets has become increasingly complex, says RES Group’s Ksenia Dray. Image: RES Group.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The European solar market finds itself at a critical juncture. While module prices have reached historic lows, developers are grappling with a perfect storm of challenges that threaten project economics across the continent. Low wholesale electricity prices, rising soft costs and increasingly selective investors are forcing a fundamental rethink of how solar projects are structured and financed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ksenia Dray, global solar leader at RES Group, will be addressing these challenges at our upcoming PV ModuleTech Europe <\/a>conference. In an interview with PV Tech<\/em> ahead of the event, she outlines how the industry is adapting to what she describes as an increasingly complex environment for standalone solar projects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The shifting project economics landscape<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The mathematics of solar project economics has undergone fundamental changes over recent years. Module costs, which once represented 35-40% of total project capex, have fallen to around 20-30% of overall costs. While this might seem positive, Ksenia Dray explains that this shift has actually reduced developers’ ability to influence project economics solely through hardware procurement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“The workforce today on a project accounts for much more than the main technology that will influence your yield for 35-40 years,” Dray notes. “It’s more about being able to secure contractors for the mechanical, electrical and civil works at competitive prices, rather than focusing solely on module costs.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This transformation means that even with modules at historic lows \u2013 and expectations of potential increases of one to two cents \u2013 developers must look elsewhere to optimise project economics. The challenge is compounded by a shortage of contractors and other key personnel across many European markets, driving up labour costs precisely when developers need to reduce overall capex.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Revenue pressures and market realities<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The revenue side of the equation presents equally significant challenges. Wholesale electricity prices have declined substantially across Europe, with markets seeing power purchase agreement (PPA) prices drop to \u20ac30-35\/MWh (US$35-40), <\/ins>such as in the Nordics, and \u20ac50 or lower in Germany, Dray says. This creates a structural imbalance between project revenue potential and construction costs, compressing margins and undermining overall project profitability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cProjects backed by CfDs or robust PPAs offer far greater bankability,\u201d Dray explains. \u201cAssured revenue streams improve debt capacity, stabilise returns and make the financing process much more efficient. Merchant-exposed projects, on the other hand, carry substantial price-volatility risk \u2014 particularly in markets experiencing frequent negative prices such as Germany, Spain, or France \u2014 which erodes expected revenues and lowers investor appetite.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investor expectations have shifted considerably. Today, capital is concentrating on projects that offer higher returns and a strong de-risked profile \u2014 meaning permits secured, grid connection confirmed, and limited exposure to price volatility. Standalone solar projects, especially those fully exposed to market prices and increasing negative-price events, often struggle to meet these elevated return requirements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Strategic responses and cost optimisation<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Faced with these constraints, developers are pursuing multiple strategies to maintain project viability. On the cost side, EPC prices have seen some reduction, falling below \u20ac390,000 per megawatt in Germany, or around \u00a3400,000 (US$523,000) per MW in the UK. However, Dray cautions that these figures generally reflect ‘vanilla\u2019 projects with no site-specific complexities and minimal contingencies. In reality, most projects cannot reach these ultra-low cost levels, and this likely represents the limit of what can be achieved through traditional cost reductions alone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“There’s a limit to where capex can drop,” she observes. “Projects are complex, and in the UK, for instance, archaeology constraints or drainage requirements can significantly increase costs. In other regions, rocky terrain or challenging ground conditions have a similar impact. These site-specific factors ultimately set a realistic floor on capex, and they must be carefully assessed, because they can materially influence the project\u2019s overall profitability and the attractiveness of the initial investment.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alongside managing costs, developers are also looking more broadly at ways to optimise overall project performance. This includes strategic module selection, with some developers exploring back-contact modules to increase yield and capture additional revenue points. The emphasis on yield optimisation becomes critical when revenue per unit of generation is under pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The rise of hybrid solutions<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"A
Solar and storage hybrid projects offer new opportunities for enhancing project value. Image: Greenvolt.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Perhaps the most significant strategic shift has been toward hybrid projects combining solar with battery storage, which are gaining prominence as developers seek ways to enhance project value. However, Dray cautions that hybrid projects aren’t a guaranteed route to higher profitability. “You can uplift a project\u2019s economics by two to three percentage points with a hybrid configuration, but demonstrating that value is complex. The market is still maturing in terms of hybrid design, and credible hybrid revenue models \u2014 including hybrid PPAs \u2014 are only just emerging. Lenders and investors want to see a clear, proven revenue stack before they are comfortable financing these projects,\u201d she says<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key challenge lies in the regulatory landscape. In many European markets, the rules for valuing storage and defining which grid services it can sell are still unclear. Relying solely on merchant participation in capacity or balancing markets introduces significant risk, and investors generally prefer more stable, predictable revenue streams.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis uncertainty is why many banks and investors remain cautious,\u201d Dray explains. \u201cWithout a clear and established framework for storage revenues, it\u2019s difficult to underwrite long-term returns.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market outlook and industry adaptation<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The cumulative effect of these challenges is becoming apparent in market dynamics. Solar Power Europe’s growth projections have been revised downward in H1 2025. The market is now expected to slightly contract to -1.4% in 2025 under the \u2018medium scenario\u2019, making it the first year of decline in nearly a decade, rather than the initially optimistic 7%. The high scenario now forecasts only a 1.1% growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M&A activity in the European renewables sector has slowed sharply, a trend closely tied to tightening project economics and a broader cooling of investor appetite for \u2018green\u2019 assets, which are now viewed as carrying higher risk and weaker returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ksenia Dray suggests the industry may need to accept a shift in business models. “It\u2019s not just about electricity prices\u2014 it\u2019s the growing revenue volatility,\u201d she says. \u201cStorage can strengthen the revenue stack and improve risk-adjusted returns, whereas standalone solar is finding it increasingly difficult to remain competitive on its own.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The challenging economics have also driven innovation in how transactions happen. Digital platforms are emerging to streamline M&A processes, reduce transaction costs and connect buyers with sellers more efficiently. One such example is the platform Nrdeal, which not only facilitates investments in renewable energy projects by connecting key actors, but also provides the market intelligence and advisor network needed to evaluate assets in a more complex economic environment. By reducing the administrative burden of transactions and providing better visibility into opportunities, platforms such as Nrdeal accelerate deal cycles in a market where investors are becoming increasingly selective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking forward<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The European solar industry stands at a crossroads. While the fundamental drivers for renewable energy deployment remain strong, the economic realities require a more sophisticated approach to project development and financing. Success increasingly depends on optimising every aspect of project economics \u2013 from innovative financing structures to strategic technology choices and revenue diversification through storage integration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The challenge for developers is navigating this complexity while maintaining the scale of deployment needed to meet Europe’s 2030 renewable energy targets. As Ksenia Dray suggests, this will require continued innovation in project design, financing mechanisms and market structures to bridge the gap between current economics and deployment ambitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ksenia Dray will participate in a panel discussion on solar project economics at PVModuleTech Europe in M\u00e1laga, Spain, on 2-3 December. For full details and booking, click here<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

PV Talk: RES Group’s Ksenia Dray discusses how European solar developers are reshaping strategies to maintain project viability in challenging market conditions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":162793,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[56,116,2113,1561,207,72,95,10697,125],"paywall-tags":[8671],"regions":[28],"industry-segments":[10,9],"class_list":["post-162792","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-interviews","tag-europe","tag-finance","tag-hybrids","tag-merchant-pv","tag-ppa","tag-pv-modules","tag-pv-power-plants","tag-pvmoduletecheu","tag-solar-pv","paywall-tags-premium","regions-europe","industry-segments-markets-finance","industry-segments-power-plants"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAdapting solar project economics in a low energy price environment - 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