{"id":161885,"date":"2025-10-31T17:38:58","date_gmt":"2025-10-31T17:38:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pv-tech.org\/?p=161885"},"modified":"2025-11-06T16:16:05","modified_gmt":"2025-11-06T16:16:05","slug":"what-does-the-upcoming-section-232-on-polysilicon-need-to-answer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pv-tech.org\/what-does-the-upcoming-section-232-on-polysilicon-need-to-answer\/","title":{"rendered":"What does the upcoming Section 232 on polysilicon need to answer?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"A
A graph representing the control Chinese companies have over the global solar supply. Image: PV Tech Research.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A recent note from investment bank Roth Capital highlighted the possibility of Section 232 on polysilicon being released imminently<\/a>. Only a few weeks ago, during PV CellTech USA, many expected the investigation to take months<\/a> (subscription required) as it wasn\u2019t viewed as a pressing matter compared to Section 232 on semiconductors. However, the note from Roth Capital indicates otherwise, with a decision to be released by mid-November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ahead of its publication, several questions need to be understood quickly by any manufacturer or participant. The answer to these questions will affect the industry and the manufacturing landscape in the US.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will there be a different tariff for every region? <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

If this investigation aims to end the game of whack-a-mole that the US government has been playing with the Chinese manufacturers around Southeast Asia with the antidumping and countervailing duties (AD\/CVD)<\/a> investigations, then it would make sense that Chinese polysilicon becomes the most-tariffed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After all, our data indicates that nearly 60% of the foreign modules entering the US originate in Southeast Asia. Thus, it would make the most sense to target them at the source. This would be bad news for most manufacturers that still source their polysilicon in China, but it would be great news for companies like OCI. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, would that not replace one game of whack-a-mole with another? Instead of cells, would it be polysilicon? The answer is potentially, but if this policy aims to remove the Chinese monopoly over polysilicon, that would be a very effective way to do it.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The other option, which is much less likely, would be for all polysilicon entering the US from abroad to become heavily tariffed. While this would be ideal for internal US manufacturing, it would hurt short-term pricing throughout the supply chain and, more importantly, could slow future solar deployments. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

What does that mean in the short term? In recent months, we have seen an increased demand for polysilicon, most notably Daqo New Energy (see chart below), suggesting that they are now managing to sell some of their inventory at a higher price. This indicates stockpiling in the US as market participants prepare for the decision. However, Section 232 can be retroactively applied, and the stockpiled quantity might not be safe. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n